Zoopla House Price Index: September 2025

Supply and sale numbers continue to climb as committed homebuyers look to secure a home this autumn. The average agent has 36 homes for sale - a fifth more than in 2023 and 8% higher than this time last year.

However, speculation over potential tax changes has begun to weigh on activity in recent weeks, largely in the premium market. Both buyer demand and new listings priced above £500k have fallen compared to a year ago, a clear indication of movers delaying decisions ahead of the Autumn Budget.

Property tax speculation hits the premium market

Sparked by a series of policy papers reported by the media in August, parts of the market are showing signs of uncertainty. The proposals that “ministers are considering” include replacing stamp duty with an annual tax on homes sold for more than £500k, a council tax revaluation, and even taxing capital gains on sales above £1.5m. 

Although none of the ideas came directly from the government, they have been enough to unsettle parts of the market in the build-up to the Autumn Budget.

Compared to a year ago, the latest data shows that:

• in the £1m+ market, buyer demand is 11% lower and new listings are 9% lower

• in the £500k+ market, buyer demand is 4% lower and new listings are 7% lower

Budget speculation is always a factor for homebuyers, but possible changes appear to have been more heavily trailed this year. While it may well come to nothing, there is already a clear impact starting to emerge. Weaker demand and fewer higher-value listings is driven as much by hopes of savings on stamp duty as concerns over what a new tax may look like.

While this is not a market downturn, it is a moment of hesitation. Data-led advice on market stability, settled mortgage rates and strategic pricing can give clients the confidence to act in a cautious market.

In terms of the scale of impact, 8% of homes currently for sale are priced over £1m while 1 in 3 homes currently for sale are priced above £500k. London and the South East have the most homes listed for more than £500k, which is where the speculation will be felt most keenly in the coming weeks.

The wider mainstream market is seeing little impact, with demand and new supply in line with last year.

UK house price inflation slows to 1.4%

UK homebuyers have returned to the market in strength over the past two years, fueling a sustained recovery in housing sales.

However, house price growth has slowed in recent months, with 1.4% year-on-year growth to August 2025. This translates to a £4,350 increase in the average UK house price, which now stands at £271,000.

The widening north/south divide in prices and activity reflects affordability constraints and the impact of higher stamp duty costs since April, both of which are greatest in southern regions.

As such, house price inflation remains weakest across the south, with rises of less than 0.5% in London, the South East, the South West and the East of England.

All other regions are seeing higher annual house price inflation, with 3.1% growth in the North West and the highest growth of 7.9% in Northern Ireland.

Market resilient in affordable areas

There is a clear link between home values and price growth in local areas. The lower the value of housing, the greater the growth.

Prices are rising fastest in markets with average prices below £200k (+2.8% on average), while they’re barely rising in markets averaging more than £500k.

In terms of the strongest growth, house prices are rising by more than 4% in 5 postal areas:

• Kirkcaldy (KY) to the north east of Edinburgh

• Oldham (OL) in the north west of England

• Tweeddale (TD) on the eastern side of the Scottish Borders

• Motherwell (ML) to the south of Glasgow

• And Llandrindod Wells (LD) to the north of Cardiff in Wales

For agents in stronger-growth markets, this ongoing resilience despite wider headwinds can give confidence around demand levels, pricing and speed of sale in instructions.

Across southern England, house prices are falling by more than 1% - with the biggest falls in:

• Bournemouth (BH)

• Truro (TR)

• Exeter (EX)

• Torquay (TQ)

• Parts of central London (WC and EC)

The decline is linked to external factors like second-home council tax changes, which has increased supply. For southern-based agents, this is a critical point to discuss with clients, highlighting that competitive pricing and strategic marketing are essential to stand out in a high-supply market.

Mortgage rates stable between 4% and 5%

The recovery in sales activity is largely down to greater stability in mortgage rates since the significant spikes in 2022-23.

Average mortgage rates for new loans are currently between 4% and 5% for a 5-year fixed rate deal, depending on the size of the loan. Although it was widely expected that the base rate and mortgage rates would have fallen further by now, continued stability in rates has propped up confidence and market activity.

Vitally, new affordability criteria means homebuyers can afford to borrow 20% more than they could six months ago - with the same mortgage rate and same income. This is a key message for clients seeking assurance that there are buyers in the market - it has supported demand for homes in recent months, especially among first-time buyers and in affordable areas.

Outlook: Navigating the autumn plateau

The sustained upward momentum in housing activity over the last 18 months is set to plateau in the coming weeks as Budget uncertainty impacts home-buying decisions.

This moment demands proactive client management. With the average sale taking 6–7 months to complete and the Budget just two months away, hesitation means delaying a move until next spring.

For sellers, it’s vital to understand that overpriced homes will be bypassed in a market of uncertainty and high supply. Modest price growth does not support aspirational pricing, especially in the south where activity is weakest, so localised data can support competitive pricing to capture the committed buyers who are still transacting.

Stability is strong and prices are rising fastest in affordable areas, justifying immediate action for buyers in those locations. With further mortgage rate drops unlikely and house price growth steady, the risk of delay outweighs the hope of future savings.

The Zoopla House Price Index (HPI) tracks the change in achieved sale price of homes (not asking prices). The index uses sold prices, mortgage valuations and data for recently agreed sales, with more input data than any other index. The methodology is designed to accurately track the change in pricing for UK housing. It’s a revisionary index and non-seasonally adjusted.

Additional notes on this month’s data:

• The average agent has 36 homes for sale, a fifth more than in 2023 and 8% higher than this time last year: in the 4 weeks to 21 September 2025 vs the same period in 2024, Zoopla data

• Average mortgage rates for new loans are currently between 4% and 5% for a 5-year fixed rate deal: Bank of England, Bankstats

Past House Price Index reports

• July 2025

• June 2025

• May 2025