Rental demand weakest for 5 years
Demand for rental homes exploded in the post-pandemic years. As the economy reopened and migration for work and study grew rapidly, it peaked in mid-2023. Then a trebling in average mortgage rates from 2022-23 hit property sales, further boosting rental demand.
The frantic rental demand of the post-pandemic years is now easing partly due to a halving in migration due to visa rules along with rising incomes turning renters into first-time buyers. There’s been a 30% jump in first-time buyer mortgages in the last year, a key reason why more rental supply has been released.
Affordability challenges slowing demand and growth
The affordability of renting has reached a natural ceiling. The average UK rent rose by almost £80 per week over the last 5 years - £4,100 per year - putting immense pressure on renters.
Rental inflation has now slowed sharply across much of the country. At a localised level, rents are falling in cities like Bristol (-0.5%) and Leeds (-0.6%) as these markets adjust. Across regions, annual rental growth sits at 2% in London, Scotland and Yorkshire and the Humber, with the highest growth in the North East at 4.6%
It’s important to remember that many private renting households are on below-average incomes. Almost a third rely on housing benefit to support their renting costs, and this allowance has not kept up with rental increases.
For agents, a successful pricing strategy must now balance a landlord's desire for income with a tenant's ability to pay to avoid longer vacant periods or potential arrears.
Rental market outlook for 2025
The rental market is normalising after a frantic few years. While home ownership remains a challenge for many, rental demand will remain above pre-pandemic levels, but a steady recovery in rental stock will continue to rebalance the market and offer new opportunities and challenges for agents.
We project rental inflation to be around 3% over 2025. The long-term solution to alleviating pressures and fostering a healthy market is to encourage new investment and grow the supply of homes for rent.